Sunday, January 18, 2015
Seattle if -5 or better, OR, Green Bay if +9 or better NB
New England if -3 or better; Indy if +7 or better. B, L
Overall: 35-25-2 (59.7% W & P)
The idea is to find an edge over the theoretical 50-50 betting line. This is an easier way of expressing it. When choosing the game, simply refer to the instructions.
I’m expecting fivethirtyeight to adjust their algorithm over the summer. Because of game importance – or lack thereof – like in the regular-season New England-Buffalo matchup that New England lost by conserving players since they already had clinched. Underline emphasis mine:
A solution to this kind of quandary might be to tweak the Elo K-factor for each game using a leverage index-style metric, like the “swing” number FiveThirtyEight contributor Mike Beuoy uses to measure the playoff implications of a given matchup. Such a mechanic would elegantly put more emphasis on games in which teams had a great deal on the line, while simultaneously downplaying the importance of relatively meaningless games like Sunday’s Patriots-Bills tilt. Until then, however, Elo can only use the information it’s given, and that means we’re probably undervaluing the Patriots’ Super Bowl chances here.to come after season end.
Win and push rate to date is just over 60.6%, if my math is correct – feel free to double check anything.